Exumas weather for boaters: trade winds, cold fronts, swell and hurricane season

Weather decides when you move in the Exumas. This page gives the hurricane season dates, how each source describes the trade winds, and one dated Bahamas Met bulletin that shows how a front and its swell are forecast. It is part of the boating guide.

When is hurricane season in the Exumas?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June to 30 November¹. The first named storm typically forms in mid to late June, and the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August¹. The National Hurricane Center puts the peak of the season at 10 September, with most activity between mid-August and mid-October¹. Its average Atlantic season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes¹. Wikipedia notes that although the season officially lasts from June to November, most hurricanes in the Bahamas occur between July and October⁵.

For a boat trip, the dates matter more than the averages. A trip that falls inside the window should have a plan for where the boat goes if a storm is forecast, and a way to leave early. If you are weighing cover for a trip inside the window, read travel insurance for a Bahamas boat trip before you pay a deposit.

What are the usual winds for sailing the Exumas?

Each source describes the trade winds in its own words, so here they are separately.

• The Moorings charter page: steady trade winds, averaging 10 to 20 knots³.
• The Moorings eGuide: the northern trade winds (E to ENE) blow around 10 to 15 knots almost continually throughout The Bahamas⁶.
• Wikipedia: winds are predominantly easterly throughout the year, tending to become northeasterly from October to April and southeasterly from May to September, and they seldom exceed 24 km/h except during hurricane season⁵.

Treat these as general descriptions, not a month-by-month forecast. A bulletin like the one below is what tells you to change the plan.

What does the weather do through the year?

Wikipedia describes a wet season from May through October, dominated by warm, moist tropical air, and a dry season from November through April, when a mix of drier northeast trade winds and occasional westerlies coming down from the North American mainland affect the Bahamas⁵. Rain often comes as short, fairly intense thundershowers with strong gusty winds, followed by a return to clear skies⁵.

The Moorings eGuide says the most refreshing time is December through February, when the temperature averages 70 to 75 degrees F⁶. It says mid spring starts the rainy season in the form of local thunderstorms and squalls, usually in the afternoon, and that some produce waterspouts, so keep a lookout⁶. For the month-by-month view of crowds and conditions, read the best time to visit the Exumas.

How does a cold front show up in a Bahamas forecast?

The Bahamas Department of Meteorology issued a special weather statement on a cold front at 6 PM EDT on Saturday 17 October 2026². Its headline read large northeast swells and hazardous marine conditions through midweek⁷. The table pulls out what the statement said.

Forecast element	What Bahamas Met said
Front	Stalls near the Straits of Florida and Northern Bahamas on Monday, then weakens by midweek2
Wind behind the front	Strong northeasterlies over the Gulf Stream, with large northeasterly swells into Bahamian waters from Sunday through Wednesday2
Swell in the Exumas	Reaches Cat Island, San Salvador, Long Island and the Exumas on Sunday night and Monday2
Seas, Atlantic exposures	7 to 11 feet in the Central and Southeast Bahamas, Monday through Tuesday2
Local wind	Only 10 to 15 knots2

The front was forecast to stall near the Straits of Florida and the Northern Bahamas, yet the swell behind it was forecast to spread to the Exumas².

Can the seas be rough when the wind is light?

Yes. The most useful line in that bulletin is the gap between wind and seas. Atlantic exposures were forecast at 7 to 11 feet while local winds stayed at only 10 to 15 knots². Read both numbers every time. For how water behaves in the cuts, see the cuts and tides guide.

Bahamas Met advised small craft operators in the Central and Southeast Bahamas to stay in port or in sheltered waters from Monday through Tuesday². If a forecast like that covers your area, a day in a protected anchorage costs you less than a bad crossing.

How do you make a go or no-go call?

Check the Bahamas Met marine forecast and any special weather statement before each leg, not only at the start of the trip. Look for a front, then for swell direction and size, then for the wind. The bulletin above went out on Saturday evening and put the swell in the Exumas by Sunday night², so read statements as they come out, not once a day. Plan the exposed legs for the calm days and keep the shelter days free.

Crossing from Florida adds the Gulf Stream, where wind and current interact; see Florida to the Exumas by boat. On the water, the Bahamas National Trust says Channel 16 is monitored 24 hours a day for emergencies⁴. Call “Exuma Park” on Channel 09 for the park office, though it sits on a remote island and can be hard to reach⁴. The VHF channel guide covers the rest. For choosing a route between the banks, see Exuma Bank vs Exuma Sound.

These pages are not a substitute for charts, forecasts and local knowledge.